Key points:

Bitcoin risks reinforcing its 200-week exponential moving average as new resistance this week.

Price remains unable to flip the key trend line back to support as breakouts fail.

Oil and gold are seen as the main BTC price volatility catalysts.

BTC price 200-week trend line in the spotlight

Data from TradingView showed multiday lows of $66,569 for
BTCUSD
over the weekend.

This placed the pair below its key 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) trend line, one that it had repeatedly tried and failed to reclaim as support.

Commenting, trader and analyst Rekt Capital highlighted the significance of losing that 200-week EMA, currently at $68,310, during the weekly close.

“Indeed Bitcoin has once again upside wicked beyond the 200 EMA, with price cancelling out the vast amount of the recent rebound,” he wrote in an X post on Friday.

Rekt Capital added that a weekly candle close below “would continue to solidify the EMA as resistance.”

Prior to February,
BTCUSD
last saw a close beneath the trend line on weekly time frames in early March 2023.

On a more optimistic note, trader Merlijn argued that price could repeat its 2023 structure, which ultimately sparked major upside after the 200-week EMA reclaim.
All about oil and gold, says Bitcoin trader

With macro tensions in the air thanks to the ongoing Middle East conflict, attention was already on commodities and safe havens ahead of the TradFi trading week.

Crypto trader, analyst and entrepreneur Michaël van de Poppe tied gold and oil performance directly to Bitcoin’s chances of a rebound.

“All eyes on Oil tomorrow, and Gold & Silver. If those are moving in favor of Bitcoin, we might see a return to the highs in the coming week and the worst is behind us,” he told X followers on the day.

“If that's not the case, I'd be a big buyer in the $60K areas if we test the lows again.”

WTI crude oil ended Friday up nearly 16% on the day, while gold coiled beneath the $5,200 mark after a failed rematch with all-time highs.

Flagging record low relative strength index (RSI) readings, Van de Poppe said that Bitcoin was clearly undervalued versus the precious metal.

“The valuation of $BTC vs. Gold isn't changed,” he wrote on X.

“It's still the lowest RSI in history of that particular metric, which is still: - Gold is overvalued in the short term. - Bitcoin is undervalued in the short term.”

source: https://www.tradingview.com/news/cointelegraph:4c1d51e5a094b:0-bitcoin-preps-fresh-trend-line-showdown-as-weekly-close-sparks-60k-target/